The baseball world is abuzz with the recent performances of three players: Jonathan Aranda, Brooks Lee, and Spencer Arrighetti. But are their recent successes sustainable? Let's dive into the analysis and find out.
Jonathan Aranda: The Rising Star
Aranda, a first baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays, had a stellar month of May, slashing an impressive .374/.464/.560 with 17 runs, four home runs, and 18 RBI in 26 games. This is a significant improvement from his previous season, where he hit .220 in April and .316 in 2025. The key to Aranda's success lies in his increased power, which is evident in his .515 xSLG in 2025, surpassing his .489 SLG. His quality of contact metrics are also above-average, with a 47.7% hard-hit rate and 40.4% launch angle sweet-spot rate, along with a robust 14.1% walk rate.
Aranda's performance has been nothing short of elite over the past 163 games, and he's seamlessly transitioned those metrics into this year. He's a good bet for a great batting average and an excellent option in OBP leagues. The only weakness was his lack of home runs for a typical first baseman, but now he's on pace to hit 30 home runs. Personally, I think Aranda's performance is a sign of things to come. He's a rising star in the game, and his ability to consistently produce is a testament to his talent. What makes this particularly fascinating is the fact that he's been able to improve his power while maintaining his contact skills. This is a rare combination, and it's a sign of a player who is truly taking his game to the next level.
Brooks Lee: The Power Hitter?
Lee, a versatile infielder for the Minnesota Twins, had a hot streak in May, batting .286 with seven runs, three home runs, and 10 RBI in 14 days. On the season, he's slashing .256/.314/.429 with a .328 wOBA, all career highs. However, his underlying metrics don't show much improvement from last year, and there's not much to like about them overall. His quality of contact metrics fall in the bottom 20 percent of the league, which is a cause for concern. While his 17.8% strikeout rate and 18.2% pull air rate are decent, they aren't elite enough to completely override the general lack of pop.
In my opinion, Lee's performance is a hot hand rather than a sustainable trend. His quality of contact is too similar to last year, and it's not good enough to expect consistent power. However, his triple eligibility and flexibility make him a helpful asset in deep 15+ team Roto leagues with middle and corner infield spots. But in shallower leagues, he should be considered a streaming play if you're desperate.
Spencer Arrighetti: The Dominant Starter?
Arrighetti, a pitcher for the Houston Astros, has been on a dominant run since his season debut on April 15. He's yet to allow more than two runs in a start through eight outings, with seven of them being one run or less. His performance has been a huge breakout, with a 1.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 43 strikeouts, and 26 walks in 47 innings. However, this isn't his first dominant run.
In 2024, Arrighetti posted a 2.72 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with an elite strikeout rate of 31.0% and a walk rate of 8.3%. This made him a trendy sleeper pick heading into 2025, but he ultimately underperformed and spent most of the season injured. While his current performance may look like a breakout, there are still major flaws present. His strikeout rate is middling, and his walk rate is not a combination that typically leads to success at the major league level.
From my perspective, Arrighetti has shown enough bright spots to give me confidence that he won't revert to his 5.35 ERA performance last season. When everything is working for him, he has the potential to deliver lights-out performances. However, his tendency to walk four or more batters in five of his eight outings this season is not sustainable. This isn't a step forward into being an elite fantasy option, and regression is certainly coming, but not enough that he'll turn back into waiver wire fodder.
In conclusion, while Aranda and Arrighetti show promise, Lee's performance is more of a hot hand than a sustainable trend. Aranda and Arrighetti, on the other hand, are rising stars who have shown the potential to become elite players in their respective positions.
